Election Post #4

I went to gallup.com to look at the polling information for the presidential race. Recent polls show that Obama has a 9 point lead over McCain, holding 51% of the polling votes, leaving McCain with a mere 42%. The polls predict that McCain is going to need to win all of the swing states to secure his victory in the 2008 election. The Virginia Senate race is basically decided at this point, with Warner holding a drastic lead over his republican opposer. Warner currently holds about 57% of the vote, while Gilmore has only 33%.

Polling has both positive and negative effects on the election. I believe that it is useful, giving the public a general idea of who is in the lead during the campaign. Some argue that the polls sway people to vote one way or the other, depending on who is ahead. They say that people who are not likely to vote will vote for their candidate if they are losing by a large margin. I believe that this is a good thing, encouraging more and more people to vote. I believe that overall polling helps during the campaign season.

I do believe that there is a percentage of error in the polling system, but I agree with experts that it cannot be much more than about 3%. With polls clearly showing Obama with a nine point lead, I believe that Obama truly has the upper hand in this election. The way that the polls are conducted to maintain the randomness and authnicity, with the random phone calls and door to door, seems to be enough to keep a real enough estimation of what is to come.